CAIE A-Level · Mathematics 9709 · Continuous Random Variables

Using a PDF: Probabilities, Mean, Variance and Median (9709 PS2 – 6.3)

10 min readSyllabus 6.3PreviewBy Uzair Khan

Syllabus objective

Use a probability density function to solve problems involving probabilities, and to calculate the mean and variance of a distribution, including location of the median or other percentiles of a distribution by direct consideration of an area using the density function. Explicit knowledge of the cumulative distribution function is not included.

Introduction

A probability density function (PDF) completely describes the distribution of a continuous random variable XX. Unlike discrete distributions, individual values have zero probability — instead, probability is represented by area under the curve. In the 9709 exam, questions in this topic ask you to:

  • compute probabilities such as P(a<X<b)P(a < X < b) by integrating the PDF,
  • find the mean (expected value) E(X)\text{E}(X),
  • find the variance Var(X)\text{Var}(X),
  • locate the median or any other percentile by setting up an area equation and solving it directly from the PDF.

Mastering these four skills is essential — they appear individually and in combination in exam questions.


Core Concept

A continuous random variable XX has PDF f(x)f(x) if f(x)0f(x) \geq 0 for all xx and the total area under the curve equals 1. All probabilities and summary measures follow from integration of f(x)f(x) directly; the syllabus does not require you to write down a separate cumulative distribution function F(x)F(x), though the underlying idea of accumulating area is exactly what you use.

Probability as area: P(a<X<b)P(a < X < b) is the area under f(x)f(x) between aa and bb. Because XX is continuous, P(X=a)=0P(X = a) = 0, so strict and non-strict inequalities are interchangeable.

Mean: E(X)=xf(x)dx\text{E}(X) = \int x\,f(x)\,dx over the support — this is the balance point of the distribution.

Variance: Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2\text{Var}(X) = \text{E}(X^2) - [\text{E}(X)]^2, where E(X2)=x2f(x)dx\text{E}(X^2) = \int x^2 f(x)\,dx.

Median mm: The value such that exactly half the total area lies to the left, i.e. the area from the lower bound of the support to mm equals 12\tfrac{1}{2}. More generally, the ppth percentile xpx_p satisfies: area from lower bound to xpx_p equals pp.


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